Thoughts As of June 16, 2025
Dear Friends,
I want to keep this monograph brief and to the point. Over the last 3+ days, Israel has successfully decimated Iranian military facilities, inflicted serious damage to much of Iran’s nuclear facilities (Fordo being the noticeable exception), killed 20+ of Iran’s most senior military leaders and nuclear scientists, and begun to destroy Iran’s oil and gas facilities (the main source of government revenues) and damage Iranian airports.
Even better, all this has been achieved with minimal destruction and loss of life in Israel to date. This is not to say that Israel has not suffered in the conflict. Over 20 people have been killed so far and between 5% to 10% of Iranian ballistic missiles have penetrated Israeli defenses, but it is hardly the overwhelming blow that Khamenei had claimed would occur.
There are rumors of Iranian leaders and their families fleeing Iran in planes that immediately turn off their transponders upon takeoff, despite Iranian airspace being closed to all commercial air travel. Clearly, the Iranian Islamic Republic regime[1] is in a state of panic, not sure what has even hit them, and deathly afraid of what is to come.
Moreover, a meaningful portion of Iran’s ballistic missiles have been destroyed and, perhaps even more importantly, Israel has been successful in eliminating a large number of their missile launchers. Each Iranian missile barrage over the past three days has diminished materially in numbers of missiles fired and intensity, a very encouraging sign.
The success of Operation Rising Lion[2], Israel’s name for its military action in Iran, has surpassed all expectations. Israel planes are free to operate unimpeded virtually anywhere in Iran and have been flying continuously over Iranian skies the past three days, taking out additional Iranian targets.
As I anticipated, the success of Operation Rising Lion to date has led the Trump Administration to increasingly acknowledge that they had advanced knowledge of the operation and gave it a green light. Meanwhile, also as anticipated, European countries for the most part have recognized Israel’s right to defend itself, while at the same time calling for an immediate ceasefire to “prevent the risk of a wider war.” It is also worth noting that Iran’s express targeting of Israeli civilians without any military objective is clearly a war crime under the Geneva Convention. Yet, we have not heard a single word of condemnation from European officials, the United Nations, Amnesty International, or any of the other NGOs that have rushed to condemn Israel for alleged war crimes.
What I want to briefly cover in this monograph are the paths that events can take from here. I’d like to go from the least positive for Israel (and the United States) to the most positive.
Please note that unfortunately on Substack.com, the footnotes – which I think add a great deal of background information and depth – can only be found at the end of the monograph. On the PDF version, the footnotes are shown on the page upon which they first appear, making them easier to access and integrate while reading the monograph. Please also note I have attached a PDF version at the end for those of you who prefer to print it out and read it in that format.
I. Events Evolve into a War of Attrition Between Israel and Iran
This would be the worst-case outcome for Israel. Israel has only one-tenth the population of Iran. Israel’s armed forces are mainly comprised of reservists who need to return to their civilian lives, both for their own sake as well as the sake of the Israeli economy. Israel does not have the economic or military capacity to engage in a war of attrition with Iran. Under all circumstances, this outcome must be avoided. Israel could not sustain a war of attrition, nor could it win one.
Therefore, Israel cannot afford to fight an endless war similar to what Iraq and Iran engaged in for over eight years in the 1980s. In the absence of a total victory, defined as regime change and the complete elimination of Iran’s nuclear program, Israel must, at some point, enter into ceasefire negotiations in order to bring the fighting to a conclusion. The key question, however, is, “When?”
2. Israel is Forced by Western Pressure to Engage in a Premature Ceasefire
Pressure from European capitals and the United Nations will have little bearing on Israel’s actions. The only person who could force Israel into a premature ceasefire is the President of the United States, Donald Trump. Within President Trump’s inner circle are two competing wings of the Republican Party: the isolationist wing, led by JD Vance, calling for no American involvement in the Middle East; and the internationalist wing, led by Marco Rubio, which has stated that Iran could never be allowed to have a nuclear weapon and that its enrichment capabilities must be eliminated.
Interestingly, they both call for “America First”. In the eyes of the isolationists, this means America should not get involved in foreign wars and seek to put America’s interest first. In the eyes of internationalists, preventing Iran from getting nuclear weapons is very much in America’s interest and making sure this never happens is, in fact, putting America first.
A premature ceasefire would result in a far-from-optimal outcome for Israel. Israel has the momentum now, and Iran’s command and control structure has been decimated. A pause in military operations would allow Iran time to regroup and reorganize. Additionally, it would be hard for Israel to resume military action once nuclear talks are again underway, allowing Iran to delay talks by slow-walking minimal concessions, something they are extraordinarily good at.
Meanwhile, as successful as Israel’s actions have been to date, numerous targets remain unscathed, and the Iranian Islamic Republic regime – which is dedicated to the destruction of the state of Israel – would most likely be able to remain in power. A premature ceasefire would mean that the Iranian nuclear program has likely been pushed back several years (a positive outcome for sure), but the Iranian nuclear and ballistic threat would not be permanently eliminated.
3. Nuclear Negotiations Happen Without a Ceasefire
I have not heard of anyone proposing this solution, but it makes tremendous sense to me. The Iranian Islamic Republic regime is the weakest it has ever been. It is widely despised by the Iranian people because of its repression and brutality as well as its mismanagement of the economy. Events of the past 20 months have demonstrated that all of the Iranian treasure that was spent to build the Ring of Fire around Israel was a waste of money. The Iranian people suffered severe economic deprivation due to the regime’s focus on the destruction of Israel and the spread of the Islamic Revolution abroad, rather than the well-being of its people.
Iran’s vaunted air defenses have proven to be worthless, its military leadership inept, and Israel totally controls the skies of Iran, acting with nearly total impunity. As each day passes, Israel relentlessly takes out more Iranian military infrastructure and further weakens the government’s sources of power and control.
Under these conditions, Ayatollah Khamenei and his regime hold no cards, and their backs are against the wall. Their greatest fear, regime change, is staring them in the face. Given this dynamic, preserving the Iranian Islamic Republic regime takes precedence over even its nuclear program. As Israel continues, day after day, to kill its key leaders, damage its nuclear facilities, and destroy critical IRGC infrastructure, the regime becomes weaker and weaker and more and more vulnerable. If fully dismantling Iran’s nuclear program is the price to be paid for the regime’s survival, I think they would have no other choice but to grab it.
From Israel’s perspective, this would be a very positive outcome, one that the Israelis could happily live with. While it would leave an Islamofascist regime in place in Iran, the end of Iran’s nuclear program, combined with the weakening of its proxies, would likely eliminate the existential risk to Israel for many years to come. Nevertheless, as long as the Iranian Islamic Republic regime remains in power, it is far from a perfect solution for Israel.
For America and President Trump, this approach, if successful, would be a major win. President Trump could take credit for eliminating Iran’s nuclear program without American involvement in the war. European leaders would be thrilled to see Iran’s nuclear ambitions came to an end, enabling them to somehow claim that their efforts helped stop the bloodshed and prevented the threat of a broader conflict.
4. The United States Destroys the Fordo Nuclear Facility
According to leaked reports from Trump Administration officials, President Trump is seriously considering using American B2 bombers to destroy the Fordo facility. As I wrote in my prior monograph, once it becomes clear that there is no risk to American planes and that Israel is prevailing on its own, Trump might jump at the opportunity to deliver the coup-de-grace to Iran’s nuclear program, allowing him to claim full responsibility for its demise. Should President Trump decide against this action, an alternative to direct U.S. involvement would be a form of “Lend Lease”, allowing Israeli pilots to fly the American B2 bombers and takeout Fordo.[3]
After Fordo has been destroyed, ceasefire negotiations could then resume under American auspices. In order to ensure the survival of the Iranian Islamic Republic regime, and likely his own personal survival, Ayatollah Khamenei would no longer have the nuclear disarmament card to play. Losing this card would force him to have to offer something else if he wanted Israel to stop decimating the regime’s instruments of power. What could this be?
In my opinion, Israel (and the United States) should demand the dismantlement of Iran’s ballistic missile and drone programs while also calling for it to stop sponsoring its terrorist proxies, both economically and militarily. This would be a great outcome for both Israel and the United States! However, it would still be far from perfect as it would leave Khamenei’s Islamofascist regime neutered, but still in power. For the Iranian people, this would be far from an ideal outcome as they would still be forced to live under this repressive, Islamofascist regime.
5. The Iranian People Overthrow the Government
The overthrow of the Iranian Islamic Republic would undoubtedly be the best-case outcome for Israel, the United States, and the West as well as the Iranian people. It would allow the entire region to move in a new direction, focusing on a better future for its citizens rather than be trapped in a continuous cycle of Jihadi violence.
Undoubtedly, the Abraham Accords, under this scenario, would be expanded to additional countries. Not only do I believe that the Saudis would quickly become a party to the agreement (or a very similar agreement that aligns with the principals of the Abraham Accords), but also I think that Lebanon and Syria would also very possibly sign on, as well. Under this scenario, I believe that Iran would return to its historical close ties with Israel, and could even become a party to the Abraham accords itself under its new government.
With the new Iranian government looking to rid itself of Islamofascist ideology and economically align itself with the West, Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and other Iran-backed militias would lose their principal military and economic backer, perhaps dealing a fatal blow to these entities or, at a minimum, severely neutering them.
This outcome becomes more and more likely as the Iranian regime suffers ever-increasing losses at the hands of the Israelis. However, as much as we and the Iranian people may hope for it, there is no certainty that this will happen in the immediate future. Sadly, there are no armed opposition groups in Iran capable of overthrowing the Iranian Islamist Republic regime at this time.
The only way I could see it happening in the near-term is if millions of Iranians take to the streets and demand the overthrow of the government, and the Iranian military takes action to support the Iranian people.
Note that I do not believe that the IRGC will ever embrace the overthrow of the government. The IRGC was created as a parallel structure to the Iranian military to serve Ayatollah Khamenei and the regime. In turn, the IRGC’s entire power base is dependent on the survival of Iranian Islamist Republic regime.
However, that does not mean that the IRGC won’t melt into the night and choose not to fight. Once Israel has decimated their military capability, many IRGC leaders and personnel may decide that this is their only chance for survival. Should the Iranian military also turn on them, the pressure to simply disappear would only increase.
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I hope that you enjoyed reading my earlier monograph, My Thoughts on the Last 24 Hours, and have found today’s further thoughts of interest and value. As always, please feel free to distribute this email as broadly as you would like. My goal in writing these emails is to educate as many people as I can.
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Take care,
Tony
[1] The official name of the country is the Islamic Republic of Iran, but in this essay, I will refer to the government as either the Iranian Islamic Republic or the Iranian Islamic Republic regime in order to separate the country from the regime ruling it.
[2] The name Operation Rising Lion is a double entendre. On the one hand, it refers to Israel as the “Rising Lion” taking on the Iranian threat directly after being in a shadow war with it and its proxies for many decades. However, “Rising Lion” also refers to Iran itself. Under the Shah of Iran, the Iranian flag had a lion placed in the middle of it. Hence, Operation Rising Lion is also a call to the Iranian people to rise up and overthrow the Islamofascist regime that has been ruling it since 1979.
[3] Lend Lease was a program that President Franklin D. Roosevelt put in place before America entered World War II in order to arm Britain by lending them military equipment and assets for their use in fighting the Nazis as well as selling Britain equipment that they were able to purchase via American loans.
