Thoughts on the Last 24 Hours - 6.13.25
Dear Friends,
I have received calls from many of you since Israel’s attack against Iran started last night. As a result, I have decided to share my thoughts more broadly with all of you. This will be far shorter than my normal monograph and given the rate at which events are moving, may be out of date before I even finish writing it.
I wanted to address three principal topics:
Israeli Military Actions in the First Waves of Attack
Coordination with the Trump Administration
How Events are Likely to Play Out from Here
Before delving into each of these topics, I must begin from a place of humility. Obviously, I am not privy to internal discussions and lack first-hand knowledge about the events I am writing about. Second, I am going to express my opinion and judgment as to what has and will transpire, but these are simply my opinions. Third, and finally, given I am not a pundit, I am not going to be shy or coy in expressing my thoughts, in an attempt to mitigate reputational damage should events play out differently than I expect. As always, at the end I’ve attached a PDF version of this monograph for those of you who prefer to read it in that format.
I. Israeli Military Actions in the First Waves of Attack
There is no other way to describe what Israel has accomplished over the past 24 hours other than as stunning! To pull off what Israel has accomplished required extraordinary intelligence, agents in place on the ground in Iran, incredible military coordination, flawless execution, all while maintaining an element of surprise.
Similar to Israel’s action against Hezbollah last September, Israel managed to eliminate much of the leadership of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC) in its initial wave, taking out the following figures last night:
Commander of the IRGC (Major General Hossein Salami)
Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces (General Mohammad Bagheri)
Commander of the IRGC Airforce (Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh)
Commander of the IRGC Drone Unit (Taher Pour)
Commander of the IRGC Defense Unit (Davoud Shaykhian)
Two Senior Nuclear Scientists (Fereydoun Abbasi and Mohammad Mehdi Tehrnachi)
In addition to these named officials, additional high-ranking IRGC and senior nuclear scientists were also killed in the attacks.
Apparently, Israel was able to take actions that they were certain (based on prior intelligence) were to lead these high-ranking IRGC officials to meet in a known location and keep them together, enabling Israel to take out this senior echelon in one fell swoop. Relative to the scientists, Israel knew the location of their residences and likely had eyes on the ground confirming they were home at the moment of the attack.
From what I have learned, Israel decided that taking out these officials needed to be part of the first element of last night’s attack, before they even knew what was happening and were relocated to more secure facilities.
One might be wondering why Israel did not take out Ayatollah Khamenei, in this initial wave? Was it due to Israel not knowing his precise location? I tend to think that Israel knew exactly where Khamenei was located last night but explicitly decided not to go after him at this point. By leaving him in place, Israel has made clear to Khamenei that they can take him out whenever and wherever they want. Knowing this may make Khamenei more cautious in any response or actions he takes in the future. Staring one’s own mortality in the face is a very powerful impediment to decisive action.
At the same time these targeted assassinations were occurring, Mossad agents were arming small but very potent drones (quadcopters similar to what the Ukranians recently used against the Russians in their surprise attacks) to take out Iranian ballistic missile sites and air defense locations. Due to the proximity to their targets, Iranians had no ability to react, and their facilities were sitting ducks.
This enabled the IDF air force to act with relative impunity in going after high value military targets as well as nuclear targets. According to early reports, the Natanz underground uranium enrichment site was either destroyed completely or suffered substantial damage. Strikes also targeted Isfahan, home to a large nuclear research complex as well as the Khondab reactor (a potential plutonium source) and suspected nuclear sites in Parchin and Tabriz. Apparently, the Fordo site, another major enrichment site, was not targeted due to its deep underground location in this initial wave.
To pull this off required extensive preparations. The vast majority of the IDF air force was involved in the initial waves, including fighter jets, bombers, aerial refueling planes, as well as rescue helicopters/planes to retrieve downed pilots, in keeping with Israel’s mandate to leave no person behind. The attack required not only pinpoint precision, but also flawless timing as each step had to take place in a perfect sequence of activities. Moreover, even though hundreds of planes and large numbers of IDF soldiers were involved, a cloak of secrecy had to be achieved in order to maintain the element of surprise. All I can say is, “WOW!!!”
2. Coordination with the Trump Administration
Early reports in Western media indicated that the Trump administration was surprised and dismayed by Israel’s actions. Subsequently reports came out that they were aware that an Israeli attack was imminent, but that they lacked any specific prior knowledge. I believe strongly that this was wishful thinking on the part of Western media, because it fit their narrative of substantial disaccord between Trump and Netanyahu.
In my opinion, this was far from the truth. Apparently, Israel had indicated that they would allow the peace process to go on, but not endlessly. President Trump stated today that he gave Iran a 60-day ultimatum to reach a nuclear agreement, saying “Today is 61”. Trump had repeatedly warned Iran that he preferred a diplomatic resolution, but warned of severe consequences if Iran did not comply.
President Trump, and Trump Administration officials, denied that the United States took any part in this attack, even while expressing some advanced knowledge. This element of Kabuki was highly strategic. It maintains the threat of future American military actions as a material deterrent from Iran either attacking U.S. bases and regional assets or launching attacks against Saudi Arabian or Emirati oilfields, military installations, or civilian locations. Iran has to know that if it takes action against any of these targets, America will respond with overwhelming force.
Moreover, it gave Trump the ability to avoid taking any responsibility (or receiving any criticism) should Israel’s attack not be successful. As John F. Kennedy said after the failed Bay of Pigs invasion of Cuba in 1961, “Victory has a thousand fathers, but defeat is an orphan.” Given the success of the attack, I think Trump will likely begin to play up his advanced knowledge and his consent of the attack so he can bask in the shared glory of the success.
As I wrote in my Top 20 Takeaways from our recent trip to Israel, Israel could not proceed with an attack against Iran unless it received the green light from President Trump. In my mind, I have little doubt that this occurred. Moreover, I believe that there was close coordination between President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu. Their recent conversation was surely not about the weather!
I believe that the Trump Administration expressed its desire to: 1) let the peace process play out and 2) focus world attention on Steven Witkoff’s upcoming meeting on Sunday with Iran’s foreign minister in Round 6 of the nuclear talks, in order to deflect Iran from believing that an Israeli attack was imminent. The belief was that Israel could not attack prior to that meeting and that Trump would never permit it.
This allowed the United States to announce the relocation of non-essential U.S. personnel from middle eastern embassies and military locations, as well as speak about Israeli preparations for an attack. What was the purpose of this?
The best way to hide something is often in plain sight. Iran was led to believe that Trump was playing “Good Cop” and having Netanyahu play “Bad Cop”, where all Israeli military preparation and action was only being done to increase leverage in the upcoming negotiations, rather than as part of an actual imminent attack. This enabled Israel to complete all of the necessary preparations (amassing personnel, preparing planes for the attack, etc.) without raising suspicion that anything imminent was about to happen.
3. How Events are Likely to Play Out from Here
Nobody has a crystal ball about any of this, myself included, but I will share with you my thoughts. With Iranian air defenses down, Israel can now methodically go after future targets with relative impunity, and I believe that this is exactly what Israel intends to do.
Israel proved its ability to eliminate high-value targets in fortified locations, buried deep underground. In the case of both Hassan Nasrallah and Mohammad Sinwar, Israel dropped a massive amount of bunker-busting ordinances in rapid succession. Reports indicate that between 80 and 100 U.S.-made 2,000-pound BLU-109s and GBU-31s were deployed within in a matter of seconds (or at most, over one or two minutes). This enabled Israel munitions to reach much more deeply than any individual bunker-busting bomb was capable of accomplishing.
I have no doubt that Israel’s attack on Iran will continue for at least one week, or perhaps two, until it has accomplished its mission of destroying Iran’s nuclear capability and materially degraded its military capacity as well. Europe, and some government officials in the United States, have already called for Israel to stop all further action and for the situation to be de-escalated. This is in keeping with the West’s long-standing policy of never allowing Israel to win a war.
However, this time, it will be different. First, Israel is facing an existential threat and will not back down before this threat is eliminated. Second, and equally as important, is the presence of Donald Trump in the White House.
Trump has made clear that Iran must not be allowed to have a nuclear weapon. However, unlike President Biden and past American presidents, Trump will not demand that Israel stops its attack prematurely. He is perfectly happy to allow Israel to do the heavy lifting required to ensure that Iran never possesses a nuclear weapon, while also claiming Israel’s success was all due to his actions once events have fully played out.
Trump is acutely aware of the attempt of the IRGC to assassinate him and other high-ranking Trump Administration officials a year ago, and Trump knows that Iran considers the United States to be the “Great Satan” while viewing Israel as the “Little Satan.” I do not believe that Trump dismisses Iran government statements of, “Death to Israel! Death to America!” but very much takes them to heart.
Meanwhile, all the leading Arab countries (Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, etc.) are publicly condemning Israel’s attack in order to: 1) placate their domestic audiences, and 2) convince Iran that they had nothing to do with the attack nor supported it (in an effort to avoid Iranian retaliation against them). Once again, this is Kabuki, because in private those very same officials view Iran as a mortal threat to their regimes and to peace in the Middle East, and are cheering Israel on. Here, too, Western media is eager to convey the disapproval of leading Arab countries in order to add to its criticism of Israel.
European leaders, in the quiet of the night, for the most part also feel the same way… but would never express those thoughts even to themselves! They are much happier issuing platitudes like, “Iran must never be allowed to have a nuclear weapon,” while never taking any concrete action and, of course, blaming Israel for initiating a wider war. For them, Israel never has any justification for its actions, as though there were no preceding events that precipitated Israeli action. Nevertheless, European leaders very much fear the consequences of a nuclear Iran, but are too spineless to do anything about it. Much easier to blame Israel for initiating a wider war.
I believe that President Trump wants to continue to play “Good Cop,” saying that Iran should come back to the negotiating table in order to avoid further destruction, while Israel continues to decimate Iran’s military and nuclear capabilities and eliminate its leadership.
In this initial wave, I think that Israel will largely try to avoid destroying Iran’s critical infrastructure – its oil refineries, ports, power plants, etc. Depending on how things play out, Israel is likely to escalate to those targets in the coming days. Meanwhile, Israel and Prime Minister Netanyahu will continue to speak directly to the Iranian people, saying that they bear no animosity toward them and hope to live with Iran in peace in the years to come. Prime Minister Netanyahu will reiterate that Israel’s objective is solely to destroy the Iranian Islamist Republic regime which has been terrorizing Iranians for the past 50 or so years and is deeply unpopular.
If the Iranian people take to the streets and try to depose the regime, Israel will not attack dual-purpose infrastructure. However, if imminent regime change looks unlikely, I believe that Israel will proceed to destroy those targets in an effort to cripple the Iranian Islamic Republic regime economically, hoping that this will lead to its eventual overthrow.
As for the Fordo enrichment site, buried deeply underground beneath a mountain in Northern Iran, Trump is perfectly happy to see how far Israel can get on its own in destroying that site. I believe that Israel will use bunker-busting bombs and other military means unknown to much of the world to do so, having considered how to eliminate this threat for many years.
If Israel is unable to do so, I think it is likely that President Trump will take military action. Doing so at a later stage will enable the U.S. to greatly mitigate any risk, having waited until Iran’s military is crippled and Iran’s military threat to U.S. bases and regional allies largely eliminated. In fact, I think that once this is achieved, Trump may decide to take action regardless of whether Israel can succeed on its own or not. Let me explain why.
President Trump is the classic bully. He likes to pick fights with people/countries that are severely outgunned and pose little threat. Hence, his attack on the Houthis. At the same time, he wants the glory that comes along with victory.
When there is minimal threat of retaliation (or danger to the U.S. aircraft involved in the mission), I believe that Trump will not hesitate to give the order to deploy America’s fleet of B2 bombers, currently stationed in Diego Garcia. These planes are the only ones capable of carrying GBU-43/B massive ordnance bombs, nicknamed MOAB, as in “Mother of All Bombs.” MOABs have the capacity to destroy installations buried deeply underground that far surpass any ordinances in Israel’s arsenal. Only the U.S. air force has the ability to drop these massive bombs.
I think when there is little risk, and Iran refuses to resume negotiations despite Trump’s repeated offers, President Trump will want to bask in the recognition that he is the one who eliminated Iran’s nuclear threat to the world… hence, his desire to take action.
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Of course, I don’t have a crystal ball, and events may play out very differently. Nevertheless, these are my thoughts. I hope that you have found them of interest. As always, please feel free to distribute this email as broadly as you would like. My goal in writing these emails is to educate as many people as I can.
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Take care,
Tony
