Wake Up! What You Should Know But May Not Know… Or May Not Want to Know - Part 6: Wake Up! Iran… The First Head of the Octopus - 3/24/25
Dear Friends,
This is the sixth monograph in my eight monogram Wake Up! series. The first five were:
Part 1: Wake Up! We are Already in a Wider Conflict. (Published on February 20, 2025)
Part 2: Wake Up! It’s Not About Dividing the Land. (Published on February 25, 2025)
Part 3: Wake Up! The Path to Peace Lies Through Victory Not Ceasefires. (Published on February 28, 2025)
Part 4: Wake Up! The United Nations is Deeply Biased, Antisemitic and Profoundly Broken… And It is Not Alone. (Published March 7, 2025)
Part 5: Wake Up! Islamofascism is a Threat to the West and Not Just to Israel. (Published March 14, 2025)
If you did not receive them, but are interested in reading these earlier monographs, they can be accessed at Substack.com by clicking on the following link that will take you to all of my earlier monographs, including those five: tonybrenner.substack.com
Please note that unfortunately on Substack.com, the footnotes – which I think add a great deal of background information and depth – can only be found at the end of the monograph. On the PDF version, the footnotes are shown on the page upon which they first appear, making them easier to access and integrate while reading the monograph. Please also note I have attached a PDF version at the end for those of you who prefer to print it out and read it in that format.
Let me now turn to the topic of my sixth monograph: Part 6: Wake Up! Iran… The First Head of the Octopus.
This is not likely to come as a surprise to many of you, but when one looks at the strife in the Middle East, Iran is undoubtedly the Head of the Octopus. Its tentacles stretch far and wide, sowing chaos, death and destruction.
Iran, however, is not the only country with a broad reach that is fostering Islamofascism. In this monograph, I am going to focus on Iran’s role in the spread of Islamofascism as well as on its efforts to destroy Israel, the world’s only Jewish state. In Part 7 of the Wake Up! series, I will turn to the other Head of the Octopus.
I will divide this monograph into four sections:
· An abbreviated history of Iran, with a focus on its treatment of Iranian Jews.
· A relatively brief discussion of the Iranian nuclear threat and its implications.
· An in-depth analysis of Iran’s external activities overseen by the Quds Force.
· Some concluding comments and thoughts.
I. Iran’s History and Treatment of Iranian Jews
It is important to begin with a simple statement: Iran has had a long and proud history. Historically, Iran is a Persian country and not an Arab one, as many mistakenly believe. In understanding Iran, it’s important to know that Iran was not always the Islamofascist country that it is today. In fact, far from it. The first Persian Empire, the Achaemenid Empire, was founded by Cyrus the Great in 550 BCE. For more than 200 years, the Persian monarch was indisputably the world’s most powerful person, with the Achaemenid Empire stretching from the Balkans and Egypt to Central Asia and beyond.
The Achaemenids were known for their religious tolerance, allowing conquered peoples to practice their own religions and traditions. The history of peaceful and good relations between Jews and Persians began with Cyrus the Great, who freed the Jews from Babylonian captivity and supported the rebuilding of their temple in Jerusalem. For the next 2500 years, up until the Islamic Revolution, a sizeable Jewish population lived in Persia.
Jews flourished during the Achaemenid Empire (550 BCE to 330 BCE), marking the first golden era for Jews in Persia. Under the Sassanid Empire (224 BCE to 651 CE), the Jewish population in Persia grew considerably, even as Jews suffered intermittent oppression and persecution. The successful invasion of Persia in 642 CE by Arab Muslims under the Rashidun Caliphate terminated the independence of Persia, established Islam as the state religion, and dramatically altered the status of Jews... and not for the better.
The degree of freedom and the level of persecution for Jews in Persia ebbed and flowed over the ensuing centuries as dynasties came and went. Unfortunately, life for Persian Jews once again took a turn for the worse in the 19th century, when Jews faced widespread discrimination, including forced conversions and massacres, prompting significant Jewish emigration to Palestine.
Life for the Jews once again materially improved in the 20th century under the Pahlavi dynasty, which marked the second golden age for Jews in Persia. The Pahlavi dynasty commenced in 1925 with the election of Reza Khan as the Shah of Iran[1] after the Majles (Iran’s Parliament) deposed the prior ruler, Ahmad Shah. As part of Reza Shah Pahlavi’s broader efforts to strengthen the country’s national identity, he issued a decree on March 21, 1935, changing the name of the country from Persia to Iran.
One of the early steps that Reza Shah Pahlavi took in his effort to modernize Iran was to shift Iran toward being a more secular society. He implemented policies that dramatically increased the number of secular schools for both boys and girls and reduced clerical control over education. In addition, Reza Shah Pahlavi implemented major legal reforms, with large parts of the legal system shifting from religious courts to secular ones, again reducing the power of the Mullahs.
Under Reza Shah Pahlavi’s rule, women’s rights significantly improved. He banned veils, including burkas and hijabs (yes, you read that correctly, banned), raised the marriage age, and made divorce laws more equitable. Reza Shah Pahlavi strengthened the army by purchasing weapons abroad and sending officers to European academies to be trained. Domestically, he invested in infrastructure projects while maintaining a very centralized economy, creating many government-backed monopolies. His reign, however, proved to be a relatively short one.
After 16 years as the Shah of Iran, Reza Shah Pahlavi was forced by the Allies to abdicate. On September 16, 1941, at the age of 21, his son, Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi, became the Shah. The Allies feared Reza Shah Pahlavi’s pro-German sympathies might jeopardize key supply routes through Iran critical to their military operations and were not comfortable with Reza Shah Pahlavi remaining in power. Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi remained the Shah of Iran until he was deposed on February 11, 1979, during the Islamic Revolution.
Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi continued in his father’s footsteps in seeking to modernize Iran. Under his leadership, he further enfranchised women giving them the right to vote, granting them far more rights under the law, and providing equal access to education. Although the ban on veils lapsed under Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi, it remained relatively rare to see women in Iran dressed in burkas or even wearing hijabs during his reign, and particularly so in Tehran.
Under Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi, the government put programs in place to improve rural education, doubling literacy rates, and expanded schools and universities. From an economic perspective, Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi leveraged oil revenues to fund large scale industrial projects (including new roads, railways, dams and other infrastructure-related projects). During his 38 years in power, Iran achieved an average annual growth rate in GDP of nearly 10% per annum.
On the domestic front, Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi put in place secular policies that reduced religious discrimination, allowing Jews to integrate into broader Iranian society and thrive. Jews enjoyed significant economic, social, and cultural advancements, with many excelling in professions such as medicine and academia. During Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi’s reign, approximately 80,000 to 100,000 Jews lived in Iran. Nearly 60,000 Jews lived in Tehran alone, creating a particularly robust Jewish life there, with Jewish schools, synagogues, and cultural organizations all allowed to flourish.
Under Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi, Iran maintained a close, but unofficial, relationship with Israel, driven by shared strategic interests and mutual opposition to Arab Nationalism and Soviet influence. Iran was the second Muslim-majority country to de facto recognize Israel, allowing an Israeli trade office to operate in Tehran in 1959.[2] Iran supplied Israel with oil, while Israel provided technical and agricultural expertise. In addition, there was extensive collaboration with Israel on defense matters, including arms purchases, training programs for Iranian security forces, and intelligence sharing.
Everything changed following the Islamic Revolution in 1979, when Ayatollah Khomeini, Iran’s first Supreme Leader, seized power. The monarchy was abolished, and the country became an Islamic Republic governed by Sharia law, with ultimate power in the hands of the Supreme Leader. Internally, Ayatollah Khomeini consolidated power by suppressing secular, leftist and nationalist groups that had supported the revolution. Western cultural influences were purged. Strict Islamic codes of dress and behavior were enforced, particularly for women, and women’s rights granted under the Shah were reversed.
Life for Iranian Jews quickly worsened as Jews were reduced to third-class citizens under Islamic law, facing confiscation of property and retaining few legal rights. Within months of the Islamic Revolution, more than 30,000 Jews fled Iran, in the vast majority of the cases leaving behind their homes and their assets.[3] Today, only a miniscule fraction of what was once a thriving Jewish community in Iran remains in the country.
Once in control, Ayatollah Khomeini sought to export the Islamic Revolution through any and all means – cultural, ideological, political and military. He viewed strict adherence to Sharia law, as a divine mandate for all Muslims worldwide, and wanted to promote Islamic values beyond Iran’s borders. Relations with the U.S. and Israel were immediately severed.
Iran’s world view has not changed in the nearly 50 years since the Islamic Revolution. Its goal has been and continues to be to export the Islamic Revolution across the world. In the near term, Iran has sought to convert Muslim-majority countries to its extreme Islamofascist ideology and to undermine Western civilization and governments, by whatever means necessary.
Longer-term, Iran wants to see Western civilization collapse and governments in the West to be replaced by Islamic states. It hopes to achieve this radical vision for the West over the next 30 to 50 years through a mix of demographic changes[4], the embedding of Iran’s Islamofascist ideology within the Muslim community, the conversion of disillusioned non-Muslim citizens to its radical view of Islam, and the power of an increasing Muslim voting bloc able to exert increased sway in the political process.
The Islamic regime in Iran views Israel’s very existence as an affront and a blight upon Iran and the entire Middle East that needs to be eradicated. This is the necessary first step on Iran’s assault upon the West and the global spread of its Islamofascist ideology.
II. The Iranian Nuclear Threat and Its Implications
Over the past 25 years, under the guise of a peaceful, civilian nuclear program, Iran has strived to develop an arsenal of nuclear weapons under the code name, Project Amad. In order to slow Iran’s nuclear weapons program, the P5+1 group[5] (the U.S., U.K., France, China, Russia, and Germany) along with the European Union entered into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with Iran in July 2015. The JCPOA’s primary goal was to limit Iran’s nuclear program to ensure it remained peaceful in exchange for relief from international sanctions. Compliance was supposed to be enforced by periodic, unannounced visits to Iranian nuclear sites by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors.
Although Iran complied with certain elements of the JCPOA, it was clear that behind the scenes Iran was far from adhering to the agreement. Iran prevented IAEA access to many critical sites, sanitized sites before granting IAEA access, relocated activities to secure military sites or civilian facilities with plausible cover stories justifying their work, and restricted the inspection scope of those sites that the IAEA was allowed to visit. Meanwhile, the JCPOA did not apply any restrictions to Iranian missile development, a critical flaw in the agreement.
The full extent of Iran’s nuclear weapons program was unearthed in January 2018, after Israeli intelligence agency Mossad conducted a raid on a Tehran warehouse and seized approximately 100,000 documents related to Iran’s nuclear program. These included 50,000 pages of paper records and 163 compact discs containing videos, memos, and plans. The materials revealed details about Iran’s secret Project Amad, which aimed to design, produce, and test nuclear weapons between 1999 and 2003. The documents showed that Iran had plans for building five nuclear weapons and had discussed potential underground test sites.
The archive demonstrated that Iran’s nuclear program was far more extensive and advanced than previously believed by the West. It also provided evidence that Iran had retained knowledge from its earlier weapons program for potential future use and continued to work on the development of nuclear weapon, even after the 2015 JCPOA agreement expressly forbid those activities.
This Israeli operation is reported to have played a significant role in influencing the U.S. decision to withdraw from the JCPOA in May 2018. Instead of relying on the JCPOA to deter Iran, the Trump Administration decided to implement a “Maximum Pressure” campaign to cripple Iran’s economy and forestall their nuclear activities.
Following President Biden’s election and the decision of his administration to remove most of the Iranian sanctions put in place by President Trump, Iran dramatically accelerated its nuclear program. Experts believe that Iran is currently very close to having the capability to produce a deployable nuclear weapon. Estimates suggest that Iran could enrich enough uranium for a bomb in less than a week, given its advanced centrifuges and enriched uranium stockpile. However, experts believe that weaponization—converting the material into a functional warhead—could take several months to over a year, depending on technological challenges and parallel activities.
Iran has enriched uranium up to 60% purity, which is near weapons-grade (90%), and has increased its stockpile significantly. While reportedly Iran has not yet produced weapons-grade uranium, experts say that the technical steps required are minimal. The timeline for developing a deliverable nuclear weapon also depends on creating reliable delivery systems, such as missiles, which Iran has been testing. The threat of Iran having one or more nuclear weapons is very real and the danger is not at some abstract time in the future, but here and now.
The United States, United Kingdom, France and Germany have all said that same thing for the past 15 years, “Iran must not be allowed to develop nuclear weapons.” But it is actions that count, not words; and the words have proven to be little more than platitudes as Iran breached milestone after milestone. Despite the immediacy of the threat, other than the more recent statements and actions by Trump Administration[6], little has been done to actually prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons.
Should Iran obtain a nuclear weapon, the implications would be significant, and not only for Israel. First, before turning to Israel, let me deal with the impact on the rest of the Middle East and the world. To begin with, having nuclear weapons would undoubtedly embolden Iran, as it would be far less concerned about retaliation for any of its actions. It would allow Iran to assert dominance in the Persian Gulf and exert control over the Strait of Hormuz, a key strategic waterway (nearly one third of global seaborne oil trade historically is shipped through the Strait of Hormuz). In addition, Iran would likely become even more aggressive in its support of its proxies as it would no longer have to fear retaliation against Iran for the actions of their proxiies.
Undoubtedly, nuclear weapons would allow Iran to exert diplomatic leverage over other countries in the Middle East, who would increasingly feel vulnerable and powerless to resist Iranian demands. Moreover, a nuclear Iran would likely trigger an arms race in the Middle East with countries like Saudi Arabia and Turkey rushing to develop nuclear weapons of their own, jeopardizing nuclear non-proliferation agreements globally.
Combined with Iranian missile technology, Iran’s nuclear weapons could in the near future become a direct threat to Europe and over time to the United States itself. While it is unlikely Iran would ever use nuclear weapons against either the United States or Europe, it would give Iran tremendous leverage to blackmail them and provide Iran a layer of invulnerability.
As for Israel, a nuclear Iran represents an existential threat. At a minimum, a nuclear Iran would encourage its proxies, such as Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis and others to escalate attacks on Israel under the protection of Iran’s nuclear deterrence. It would also shield Iran from any direct attack on it as a result of Iranian actions or the actions of its proxies.
However, the greatest threat to Israel is the obvious one, that Iran could decide to use its nuclear weapons to destroy Israel. One might think that is insane and would never happen given Israel’s own nuclear capability.[7] Terrifyingly, it is far from implausible.
In this warped Islamofascist ideology, at a personal level, there is no downside in someone attacking Israel and/or trying to kill Jews. They claim that, according to the Koran, you either: 1) succeed in your efforts to kill Israelis and go to Paradise once you die for having completed this sacred mission, or 2) you are killed while trying to kill Jews and go to Paradise now for your efforts.
In Islamofascism, death in the jihad against Jews is viewed as a reward rather than as something to be feared. This helps to explain why Hamas so willingly uses their own civilians as human shields and doesn’t worry about their deaths and why there seems to be an endless supply of suicide bombers that they are able to recruit.
It would not be a stretch for the Mullahs in Iran to conclude that the cost of 10 million or more Iranian deaths would be worth the price of annihilating 10 million Jews and destroying the state of Israel… and particularly so if they were not among the 10 million to die! In this perverted, Islamofascist ideology, they would go down as great mujahedeen warriors accomplishing the most sacred of tasks and the cost of 10 million dead would seem like a small price to pay in the context of the global Muslim population.
Elie Weisel, a Holocaust survivor and Nobel laureate famously said, “When someone says they want to annihilate Jews, you need to listen to them.” Ayatollah Khomeini has made clear that his objective is to annihilate Israel, and history has taught Jews that they would be foolish to not take him at face value. The threat to Israel of a nuclear Iran is an existential one.
III. Iran’s External Activities Overseen by the Quds Force
The main lever through which the Supreme Leader of Iran exerts power both internally and externally is the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Ayatollah Khomeini established the IRGC in 1979, following the Islamic Revolution. The IRGC operates outside of Iran’s traditional military and reports directly to the Supreme Leader, ensuring its loyalty. The IRGC has evolved into a combined arms force with its own ground forces, navy, air force, intelligence units and special forces.
The Quds Force was established within the IRGC to export the Islamic Revolution abroad. Under Qassem Soleimani, the Quds Force became the IRGC’s elite external wing. Soleimani served as its commander from 1997/98 until his death in 2020 at the hands of a missile fired from a U.S. reaper drone. Soleimani played a central role in advancing Iran’s geopolitical ambitions and weaving together the actions of its proxies. Until his death, Soleimani oversaw Iran’s intelligence operations, unconventional warfare activities, and Iran’s military and political influence campaigns abroad while also establishing special branches of the Quds Force for intelligence, finance, politics, sabotage, and special operations.
Over a period of 20+ years, Soleimani systematically built Iran’s network of proxies through the actions of the Quds Force. While the Middle East has always been the principal focus of Quds Force activities, its reach extends throughout the world. The Quds Force seeks to export the Islamic Revolution through four separate initiatives:
· Provide training, weapons, money and military advice to armed groups in countries like Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen, where the Quds Force supports non-state actors such as Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, the Houthis, and various Shi’ite militias, referred to collectively as Iran’s proxies.
· Coordinate the activities of its proxies, forming a “Ring of Fire” around Israel, with the goal of eliminating the state of Israel through military action.
· Seek to undermine and ultimately overthrow other regimes in the Middle East through a mix of asymmetric military actions, terrorist operations, and the gradual radicalization of their populations.
· Target and assassinate Iranian dissidents living abroad as well as other perceived enemies of Iran.
Let me elaborate on each of these activities by the Quds Force so that you have a better sense of the scope and magnitude of these efforts:
Provides Training, Weapons, Money & Military / Political Advice:
· Training: Quds Force operates training camps in Iran where recruits from its various proxies in the region receive extensive training. The training at these camps is very sophisticated and not limited to basic military maneuvers. Recruits learn advanced tactics such as bomb-making, drone operations and missile deployment. In addition, Quds Force provides on-the-ground training in battlefield tactics by deploying its personnel into conflict zones in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq. Finally, Iran uses Hezbollah as a trainer to train other proxies in areas such as Gaza or Yemen where it would be more difficult for Quds Force personnel to be deployed. Without this training, there is no possible way that the Houthis could have become a menace to Israel, let alone to global shipping.
· Weapons: Iran supplies its proxies with a wide array of weapons ranging from small arms to advanced missile systems. Iran has provided both short and medium range ballistic missiles to groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) in Iraq. Iran has provided the Houthis with naval mines to disrupt shipping as well as medium and long-range ballistic missiles that are capable of reaching the oil fields in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, as well as deep into Israel. Smaller weapons include rifles, machine guns, mortars, and RPGs. Without Iranian weaponry none of its proxies would have anywhere near their current level of lethality.
· Money: Iran provides vast sums of money to its proxies in addition to weapons and training. A 2018 U.S. Treasury Department analysis concluded that Hezbollah receives $700 million per year from Iran[8], making up 70% of Hezbollah’s total funding.[9] In 2016, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah declared that Hezbollah secured all of its funding from Iran and that “as long as Iran has money, we have money.” In 2018, a U.S. State Department report indicated that Hamas received at least $100 million in funding from Iran per year. Based on an Israeli security source, Reuters reported that Iran’s funding of Hamas increased to about $350 million in 2022 after Trump’s Maximum Pressure campaign was reversed by the Biden administration.
· Military / Political Advice: The Quds Force acts as a command-and-control center for its proxies. They provide battlefield intelligence, strategy planning and operational oversight. For example, Quds Force commanders have had a permanent presence in Damascus, coordinating actions with Hezbollah. In addition, they have had a physical presence in Syria and in Iraq where Quds Force commanders have directed major offensives alongside Syrian government forces and have coordinated PMF operations in Iraq. Beyond military guidance, Iran advises its proxies on political strategies to gain legitimacy. Hezbollah’s integration into Lebanese politics is a prime example of this.
Coordinates the Activities of Its Proxies:
The Quds Force coordinates its proxies through a multi-faceted approach that combines strategic guidance, operational support, and ideological alignment. It fosters loyalty through shared ideology, emphasizing common adversaries like the United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia. This ideological alignment ensures proxies remain in synch with Iran’s objectives even when operating independently.
The Quds Force adapts its level of control based on the proxy’s experience and trustworthiness. For example, seasoned groups such as Hezbollah operate with a greater degree of autonomy but align with Iran’s strategic objectives; while newer or less reliable groups, such as the Houthis and Iranian-backed militias in Syria and Iraq, receive direct oversight from Quds Force operatives.
In addition, the Quds Force organizes joint operations rooms and umbrella organizations to unify diverse factions under a cohesive strategy. The NY Times obtained minutes of secret Hamas meetings, that provided a detailed record of Hamas’ planning for the October 7 invasion of Israel. Here is a link to the article: NY Times: Hamas October 7 Attack Planning. The seized documents include minutes from 10 secret planning meetings of small groups of Hamas’ most senior political and military leaders in the run-up to the attack.
The minutes showed that in July 2023, Hamas dispatched a top official to Lebanon, where he met with a senior Iranian commander and requested Iran’s help in striking sensitive sites at the start of the assault. The minutes state that the senior Iranian commander told Hamas that Iran and Hezbollah were “supportive in principal but needed more time to prepare”. The NY Times reported that: “The documents also say that Hamas planned to discuss the attack in more detail in a subsequent meeting with Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s leader at the time, but do not clarify whether the discussion happened.” The minutes showed that Hamas leaders in Gaza also briefed Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’ Qatar-based political leader on the project.
As horrible as October 7 was, it could have been far, far worse for Israel. In multiple interviews, former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant alluded to Iranian coordination of the attack with both Hamas and Hezbollah. He refused, however, to provide details on or off the record. Israeli journalist and political commentator Nadav Eyal filled in the blanks during an interview with Dan Senor on Senor’s podcast, Call Me Back. Eyal is known for his in-depth reporting on the Middle East and has extensive contacts within the Israeli government and security apparatus.
Eyal reported that in September 2023, Hamas floated a proposal to allow Yahya Sinwar to travel to Beirut for meetings in exchange for the potential release of two long-time Israeli hostages held by Hamas as well as the return of bodies of other Israelis they held.[10] The proposal reached the desk of Israel Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, who turned it down out of hand. Instead of Sinwar, Hamas sent Khalil Al Hayya, a close associate of Sinwar, to Beirut.
Eyal reported that in Beirut, Al Hayya met with the senior Iranian Quds Force official responsible for coordinating Iran’s Ring of Fire around Israel (consistent with the NY Times reporting). Nasrallah, however, was expecting to meet with Sinwar and not Al Hayya, who he viewed as more junior. As a result of Sinwar’s absence, Nasrallah refused to see Al Hayya, deeming it to be unworthy of him, and instead simply ignored the visit.
Eyal speculates that because of the failure of this meeting between Sinwar and Nasrallah to take place, Nasrallah never received the precise information that the attack was going to take place on the morning of October 7; and without that specific information, Hezbollah was caught off guard by the timing of the attack and was not in a position to invade Israel from the North that day.
Had Hezbollah invaded from the north on the morning of October 7 and Iran’s other proxies participated in the attack by launching extensive missile attacks on Israel simultaneously, the results could have been catastrophic for Israel, and its very survival may very well have been in jeopardy.
For those of you who are interested in hearing Dan Senor’s interview with Former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Call Me Back, here is a link to it: Yoav Gallant Interview on Call Me Back: Four Days in October. I’ve also attached the link to the segment of Dan Senor’s interview with Nadav Eyal about the proposed meeting between Nasrallah and Sinwar that never took place: Nadav Eyal Comments About What Could Have Been.
Seeks to Undermine and Overthrow Other Regimes:
In its desire to export the Iranian Islamic Revolution, Iran seeks to undermine, and ideally overthrow, regimes that it views as an obstacle to that objective. In the Middle East, Iran targets regimes that can broadly be grouped into two categories: fragile regimes and forward-looking regimes. I would place Jordan and Egypt in the first category and Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco (the later three, all signatories of the Abraham Accords) in the second.
Let me begin with the fragile regimes – Jordan and Egypt. Of the two, Jordan is the far more unstable. Having destabilized both Iraq and Lebanon, Iran is deploying a similar playbook in Jordan. The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan is ruled by King Abdullah II Bin Al-Hussein, a Hashemite. A main reason for the fragility of the country is the large Palestinian population in Jordan (both consisting of Palestinian refugees and naturalized Jordanian citizens from Palestine). It is estimated that somewhere between one half and two thirds of the population are Palestinians, making King Abdullah II a member of the minority in his own country.[11]
Iran has sought to undermine the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, using the following levers:
· Pressure from Iranian Proxies: Iran has deployed armed militias near Jordan’s borders in Iraq and Syria, including Hezbollah fighter, to exert pressure on the regime.
· Infiltration and Subversion: Iran has attempted to smuggle Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad terrorists into the country, and together with home-grown members of both organizations, subvert the Jordanian political process.
· Protests and Destabilization: Iran has supported protests in Jordan, leveraging discontent related to Gaza and Israel to destabilize the government. These efforts are coordinated with Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood.
· Media Campaigns: Iran has orchestrated media campaigns against Jordan, targeting its peace treaty with Israel and its ties to Washington.
Egyptian President Sisi is in a far more secure position than King Abdullah II in Jordan. Nevertheless, the Muslim Brotherhood remains a powerful, subversive force in Egypt, despite being outlawed by President Sisi after he took power in Egypt, and is bent on overthrowing Sisi.
In Egypt, Iran has worked both sides of the equation. On the one hand, Iran has attempted to subvert the current government by organizing and helping to fund opposition movements and foment street protests. On the other, Iran has provided financial support to Egypt in an effort to bring it into Iran’s sphere of influence and bend Egypt’s policies to its will. In addition to these activities, Iran has played a large role in the smuggling of weapons into Gaza from Egypt.
With regard to the more forward-looking regimes of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco, Iran has taken actions to try to destabilize all of them. Let me briefly touch on Iranian activities in each of these countries:
· Saudi Arabia: Iran has repeatedly targeted Saudi Arabia through its proxies. Since 2015, the Houthis have carried out numerous attacks on Saudi Arabia, including ballistic missile and drone strikes targeting cities like Riyadh, Jazan, and Aramco facilities. In 2019, using Iranian weapons, the Houthis struck Aramco’s oil facilities, cutting Saudi oil production in half for some period of time. Iran-linked groups have also engaged in cyber warfare to damage Saudi infrastructure and hurt the economy. In addition, Iran has attempted to undermine the Saudi regime from within by inflaming sectarian violence, claiming that the Saudis are a puppet of the United States and not the true guardians of the Muslim religion.
· UAE: In addition to threatening the UAE over its normalization of relationships with Israel under the Abraham Accords, Iran has directed its proxies over the years to launch direct attacks on the UAE, including a missile and drone attack by the Houthis in early 2022 on Abu Dhabi. In addition, by extending its influence in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, Iran has created increased security challenges for the UAE. Finally, Iran has strived to foment unrest within the UAE, but without much success to date.
· Bahrain: Since the Iranian Islamic Revolution, Iran has openly supported Bahrain’s Shiite uprisings in Bahrain including a failed coup attempt in 1981. Iran continues to support Shiite opposition, while denying direct involvement in unrest. In particular, Iran continues to back the Al-Ashtar Brigades (designated as terrorist organization by the U.S.) in their aim to overthrow Bahrain’s monarchy.
· Morocco: Iran has provided arms to the Polisario Front Support (PFS) using Hezbollah as the conduit for these arms deliveries and has backed PFS-efforts to destabilize Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara.
There is, however, a silver lining to Iran’s efforts to destabilize and threaten these forward-looking regimes. As America pulled back from the region and each of these countries became less certain that they could count on American military support, aligning with Israel became increasingly attractive. Each feared a nuclear-armed Iran, and the implications for their country. The Iranian threat was a major reason that the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco entered into the Abraham Accords, and it has been a key factor in Saudi Arabia reportedly considering a tri-party treaty with the United States and Israel.
Targets and Assassinates Iran Enemies and Dissidents Abroad:
Iran has engaged in a systematic campaign of assassinating dissidents and perceived enemies abroad since the 1979 Iranian Islamic Revolution. The Quds Force has played a central role in this together with the Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS), often using intermediaries to provide logistical support and carry out assassinations. Iran’s extraterritorial violence spans, Europe, North and South America, the Middle East, and beyond.
Over 452 cases of extrajudicial killings (i.e. assassinations) have been documented outside Iran, targeting dissidents, Western officials, Israelis, and others.[12] Among the prominent dissidents that have been assassinated by Iran are:
· Shapour Bakhtiar (August 6, 1991): Former Iranian Prime Minister, assassinated in Paris by Iranian operatives.
· Dr. Sadegh Sharafkandi (September 17, 1992): Kurdish opposition leader killed in the Mykonos restaurant attack in Berlin.
· Dariush and Parvaneh Forouhar (1998): Prominent dissidents murdered during Iran’s “chain murders” campaign targeting intellectuals and reformists.
· Pouria Zeraati (March 2024): Iranian journalist stabbed in London.
Following the killing of Qassem Soleimani, Iran launched a program to assassinate U.S. leaders involved in the attack, often using Hezbollah operatives as intermediaries. Although the U.S. media has downplayed the level of threat, likely for political reasons, the Quds Force had put in place plans to assassinate Donald Trump and other Trump Administration officials involved with the 2020 killing of Soleimani.[13]
Farhad Shakeri, an operative linked to the Quds Force, was charged with planning to assassinate Donald Trump before the 2024 presidential election. According to court filings, Shakeri told investigators that Quds Force officials instructed him to halt other operations and focus exclusively on assassinating Trump, providing him with the necessary financial resources and giving him a one-week timeline to devise a plan. Reportedly, after Shakeri failed to meet the one-week deadline, the plot was postponed by the IRGC until after the election. According to Shakeri, the explanation for the postponement was the belief that Trump was likely to lose the 2024 election, making him easier to target post-election.
In 2022, the U.S. Justice Department charged Shahram Poursafi, another Quds Force operative, with attempting to hire a hitman to assassinate John Bolton (the National Security Adviser from April 2018 to September 2019) for $300,000. Fortunately, the plot was foiled because the supposed hitman was actually an FBI informant.
Similarly, Mike Pompeo, the Secretary of State from April 2018 to January 2021 in the first Trump Administration, has been under continuous threat from Iran, with credible assassination plots reported at least 17 times since 2021.
The State Department has repeatedly briefed Congress on these threats to former National Security Adviser Bolton and former Secretary of State Pompeo, describing them as “serious and credible.” In addition to the assassination attempts targeting President Trump, Mike Pompeo and John Bolton, Iran has reportedly also targeted Mark Milley (former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff), Robert O’Brien (the National Security Adviser following John Bolton) and numerous other White House officials. Not surprisingly, Iran has denied involvement in these assassination attempts.
In addition to these targeted assassinations, Iran has targeted Israeli and Jewish interests around the globe, again often using Hezbollah operatives. The most noteworthy of these efforts were in Buenos Aires, Argentina. In 1994, the AMIA Jewish Community Center was bombed, killing 85 people and injuring over 300, making it Argentina’s deadliest terrorist incident ever. Multiple investigations and court rulings made clear that the bombing was orchestrated by Iran and carried out by Hezbollah. Sadly, this was not the first time that Iran attacked Jewish interests in Argentina. In 1992, Iran was linked to the 1992 bombing of the Israeli Embassy in Buenos Aires, which killed 29 people.
IV. Concluding Comments and Thoughts
I hope that this monograph has helped you to Wake Up! The tentacles of Iran spread far and wide. Iran has been the principal agent fomenting unrest throughout the Middle East, both directly and through its proxies. However, if you think that the threat stops in the Middle East, think again. Iran’s objectives are not limited to that region. Their ultimate prize is the destruction of the Great Satan (the United States), and not simply the Little Satan (Israel).
If you think this is a hyperbole and you still have any residual doubts about the ultimate objective of Iran and its proxies, all you need to do is look at the Sarkha, the Houthi banner, for answers. Again, why does the West over and over choose not to listen to what the Islamofascists are actually saying and refuse to take what is being said at face value?
The Houthi banner was adopted 22 years ago and is designed with a green border and five Arabic statements from top to bottom in the center: green text for pro-Islamic Statements and red text for anti-American, anti-Israel and antisemitic statements:
The objectives of the Islamofascists could not possibly be more clear. Nevertheless, I’d like to end on a more hopeful note. It is not pre-ordained that Iran remains an adversary. The Islamofascist regime of Ayatollah Khamenei is deeply unpopular in Iran and there are signs of serious unrest in the country.
Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi (the eldest son of the former Shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi) has lived in exile since 1979. In recent years, he has become much more visible in his efforts to put together a movement to overthrow the Khamenei regime, coordinating with both external and internal factions in Iran opposed to the regime.
Should Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi (or others) be successful in toppling the regime, the implications would be profound. Not only would the direct military (and potentially nuclear) threat from Iran go away, but also its network of proxies would be severely (and potentially fatally) weakened without Iranian military and financial support.
This has not gone unnoticed by Israel. Increasingly, Israel is looking at ways that she could support these domestic groups in Iran that are opposed to the Islamofascist regime. Repeatedly, Israel Prime Minister Netanyahu has addressed the Iranian people, including direct video messages and remarks in speeches.
In his direct messages to Iranians, Prime Minister Netanyahu has expressed solidarity with the Iranian people, criticized the Iranian Islamic Regime’s spending on wars and terror, and envisioned a peaceful future between Iran and a free Iran. Here is a link to one of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s direct message to the Iran people: Netanyahu Addresses the Iranian People.
It’s hard to know exactly what is going on behind the scenes, but I think it likely that the intensity of communications and the level of support from Israel to Iranian opposition groups is materially increasing, and that Israel now views this policy as a significant strategic initiative on her part.
Of significance, Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, is expressing the same positive sentiment toward Israel and Israelis. During a recent visit to Israel (yes, you read that correctly… a recent visit to Israel!), Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi said, “Israel will be the closest strategic ally of a free Iran. The friendship of Jews and Persians is biblical, beginning 2,500 years ago. No other two nations have such an old alliance.” Here is a link to Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi’s interview on Israeli Channel 14: Interview of Pahlavi on Channel 14.
Unfortunately, Iran is not the only Islamofascist threat with a broad reach. The other global threat is, in many ways, even more pernicious. It largely operates out of sight, wielding its influence less overtly than Iran, but no less effectively. In fact, if one looks at the global scale, I believe it is an even greater threat to Western civilization than Iran.
In my next monograph, I will discuss the second head of the Octopus, Qatar.
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I hope that you have found this monograph informative and of value. The next monograph in the Wake Up! series is: Part 7: Wake Up! Qatar… The Second Head of the Octopus. Please look for it in your inbox the week of April 7, 2025.
As always, please feel free to distribute this email as broadly as you would like. My goal in writing these emails is to educate as many people as I can.
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Finally, should you wish to email me directly, I can be reached at tony@pivotpointcap.com.
Take care,
Tony
[1] In Persian, Shah means essentially Emperor or King of Kings.
[2] Interestingly, Turkey was the first Muslim-majority country to recognize Israel, acknowledging Israel’s sovereignty and establishing diplomatic relations with Israel in 1949. At the time, Turkey was a secular nation following the vision established by modern Turkey’s first president, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. Given the current animosity of the Islamic regimes in Turkey and Iran to Israel, it is surprising to know that these very same countries were the first two Muslim-majority countries to recognize Israel.
[3] In many cases, Jews fleeing Iran had to be smuggled out of the country as Jews were often unable to obtain passports. Most Iranian Jews emigrated to Israel or the United States.
[4] The Muslim population across Western and Northern Europe has increased dramatically due to immigration and higher birth rates. Over the past 20 years, the Muslim population has approached or surpassed 10% of the total population in France, Sweden and Belgium, and is between 7% and 8% in Germany and the United Kingdom.
[5] The P5 represented the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council.
[6] The Trump Administration has moved to implement a second “Massive Pressure” campaign even more intensive than the one put in place during his first administration. Although President Trump has stated that he prefers a diplomatic solution, he has clearly indicated that a military solution is also on the table, either by the United States or by Israel with U.S. support.
[7] Israel has long been rumored to have nuclear weapons but has never acknowledged that publicly. It is widely believed that Israel has had nuclear weapons since the 1960’s, but would only use them in the last resort.
[8] Iranian funding declined under President Trump’s Maximum Pressure campaign in 2019 and 2020 before rebounding after President Biden lifted most sanctions on Iran.
[9] Hezbollah runs a criminal network in Lebanon that generates most of its remaining revenues that comprises extensive drug, cigarette and weapon smuggling networks as well as currency counterfeiting. Surprisingly, much of this activity is in Latin America, in addition to its core market in the Middle East.
[10] During the two years that proceeded the October 7, 2023 attack, Hamas had been playing “Rope a Dope” to camouflage their plans to invade. As a result, Israeli officials did not view Hamas as a significant threat and thought that Hamas was interested in de-escalating tensions with Israel. This was part of Hamas’ plans to achieve maximum surprise on the morning of October 7.
[11] Precise numbers of Palestinians living in Jordan are not kept by the government of Jordan for somewhat obvious reasons.
[12] Based on a comprehensive report written after in-depth study by Abdorrahman Boroumand Foundation for Human Rights in Iran, a Washington DC-based human rights group.
[13] The killing of Qaseem Soleimani was justified by the U.S. administration under the principle of self-defense, citing Article 51 of the UN Charter and customary international law. U.S. officials claimed Soleimani was plotting “imminent and sinister attacks” on American diplomats and military personnel. Critics argued that the United States failed to provide sufficient evidence of an imminent threat. What cannot be argued, however, is that Soleimani played a significant role in orchestrating earlier attacks against U.S. forces and interests in the Middle East over many years. The Pentagon attributed hundreds the deaths of hundreds of American troops, as well as thousands of injuries, to operations led by Soleimani.
